Spatial Matching Between Cropland Use Stability and Grain Production Support Potential in the Hilly and Mountainous Regions of Southern China

Whether the conditions supporting arable land productivity align with its current state of sustainable use is a critical issue for the protection of cropland and the management of food security in the hilly and mountainous regions of southern China. This study focuses on seven provinces—Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou—and, based on long-term remote sensing and multi-source geospatial data from 2001 to 2024, constructs an evaluation system for cropland use stability (CUS) and grain production support potential (GPSP). It then analyzes the spatial alignment between these two indicators through hierarchical cross-classification and the Potential-Stability Imbalance Index (PSI). The results indicate that (1) CUS exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with a study area average of 0.410; grids with high, medium, and low stability accounted for 24.5%, 37.2%, and 38.3%, respectively. Overall, stability was higher in plains, basins, and river valleys, and lower in hilly and mountainous areas. (2) The mean GPSP value was 0.346, with high-, medium-, and low-potential grids accounting for 14.7%, 21.4%, and 63.9%, respectively. High values were primarily concentrated in plains, basins, and coastal areas, while low values were widely distributed in inland hilly and mountainous regions. (3) The combination of GPSP and CUS yielded nine spatial matching types. Among these, the three types of same-level matches—high potential and high stability, medium potential and medium stability, and low potential and low stability—collectively accounted for 58.8%, indicating that production support conditions and sustainable utilization status generally exhibit a certain degree of consistency, though directional deviations still exist. The “low potential, high stability” type accounts for 3.7% and is mainly distributed in Jiangxi and Guizhou; the “high potential, low stability” type accounts for 0.2% and is mainly concentrated along the coast of Guangdong. The PSI further reveals the relative directions of deviation between production support conditions and sustainable utilization status in different regions. Based on this, the study discusses the possible causes of typical mismatches and proposes differentiated approaches to cropland management, providing a reference for the classified protection, enhanced utilization, and adaptive management of cropland in the hilly and mountainous regions of southern China.