The large-scale seasonal migrations undertaken by many species require complex navigational and timing decisions. Animals migrating in groups might benefit from collective decision making, especially if the environment has large local variation rather than smooth gradients in, for example, salinity or temperature, or is unpredictable, or if the migrants cannot rely on individually acquired information. We focus on juvenile salmon whose downstream migration is timed to match suitable conditions for growth and survival at sea. While the environmental and physiological factors that influence the timing of migration have been well studied, the influence of social interactions on migration timing is poorly understood. We compiled data on two species of juvenile salmon, collected at traps over 19 years, during their downstream seaward migration in three rivers in Washington state along with relevant environmental data. We developed state space statistical models to estimate the influence of hatchery-produced salmon in stimulating the downstream migration of wild salmon, while also incorporating potential environmental stimuli. Our results are consistent with the “pied-piper” hypothesis that large numbers of migrating hatchery-origin salmon provide a social cue stimulating migration of co-occurring wild salmon. The increase in the number of hatchery salmon counted at the trap was a strong predictor of the increase in wild sub-yearling Chinook salmon in the Dungeness, Puyallup, and Skagit rivers and yearling coho salmon in the Puyallup and Skagit rivers. Migration timing was also associated with abiotic factors related to temperature, river flow, and time of year. Our findings highlight the potential for social cues to affect migration timing of downstream migrating salmon, in concert with environmental factors. Incorporating social information into timing decisions may allow animals to benefit from collective decision-making strategies and better time their migrations. Moreover, understanding the effects of large-scale hatchery releases on wild salmon migration may provide valuable insights for planning the timing and duration of hatchery releases.
Kuruvilla et al. (Mon,) studied this question.