What question did this study set out to answer?

The research aims to identify factors impacting U.S. agricultural exports to specific regions and assess the export potential.

April 8, 2026Open Access

U.S. Agricultural Export Potential with South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Southern African Countries: A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model Approach

TGTanmoy Kumar GhoseArizona State University DHDarren HudsonTexas Tech University SDStephen Devadoss

Key Points

The research aims to identify factors impacting U.S. agricultural exports to specific regions and assess the export potential.
Employed a stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze export data.
Focused on South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Southern African countries.
Considered economic factors such as GDP and institutional quality.
Evaluated trade agreements and geographic constraints.
GDP and institutional quality positively influence U.S. agricultural exports.
Geographic distance and landlocked status impede exports.
Significant underperformance of U.S. exports indicated by technical efficiency scores.

Abstract

Abstract We analyzed the determinants and potential of U.S. agricultural exports to South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Southern African countries by employing a stochastic frontier gravity model. Our estimated results suggest that importers’ GDP, institutional quality, globalization level, and participation in Trade and Investment Framework Agreement significantly promote U.S. exports, while geographic distance and landlocked status act as major constraints. The derived technical efficiency scores reveal considerable underperformance of U.S. exports. We recommend that the United States can expand and strengthen its Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, institutional cooperation, interconnectedness, and direct policy focus toward countries with the largest export gaps.

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