Preventive Rapid Assessment of the Sustainability of the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions: Segmentation Approach

The article presents the author's methodological protocol for preventive express assessment of the sustainability of the socio-economic development of the regions. The relevance of the study is due to the need for prompt diagnosis of crisis phenomena under conditions of sanctions pressure and increased interregional differentiation. Existing methods are laborious and do not allow obtaining a result suitable for making operational management decisions. The purpose of the work is to develop and test a rapid assessment protocol based on a three-stage segmentation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The methodological basis was made up of methods of comparative analysis, grouping and index calculations. The information basis is Rosstat data for 83 regions for 2017 and 2022. The key element of the methodology is an integral stability index calculated from ten basic indicators. As a result of the study, it was found that 36 regions demonstrate a decrease in sustainability, while for the first time they were differentiated by the depth of the problems: 13 regions were identified as "crisis" (require comprehensive federal support), 5 - as "with a significant decrease" (need point assistance), 18 - as "conditionally stable" (monitoring is enough). Scientific novelty lies in the development of tools that combine low labor costs with the possibility of deep segmentation of regions. Practical significance - the possibility of using the results for targeted distribution of budgetary resources and justification of differentiated regional policy measures.