What question did this study set out to answer?

Investigate how to leverage the flexibility afforded by model multiplicity—where multiple models achieve equal predictive accuracy—while resolving the ethical and justifiability concerns it introduces.

June 20, 2022Open Access

Model Multiplicity: Opportunities, Concerns, and Solutions

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Authors

EBEmily BlackNew York University MRManish RaghavanMoscow Institute of Thermal Technology SBSolon BarocasMicrosoft (United States)

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Implication

Conceptual analysis reveals divergent individual predictions among equally accurate predictive models, highlighting opportunities for fairness alongside challenges to decision justifiability.

Key Points

Investigate how to leverage the flexibility afforded by model multiplicity—where multiple models achieve equal predictive accuracy—while resolving the ethical and justifiability concerns it introduces.
Formulated a conceptual framework analyzing predictive model selection beyond conventional accuracy maximization.
Evaluated the impact of model multiplicity on auxiliary criteria, including algorithmic fairness, robustness, interpretability, and individual outcome justifiability.
Demonstrated that model selection based on accuracy alone conceals meaningful disparities in individual-level predictions and aggregate system properties.
Showed that model multiplicity allows developers to satisfy fairness and robustness criteria without compromising predictive accuracy, while warning that competing models can produce conflicting, arbitrary outcomes for individuals.

Cite This Study

Black et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d68e5fa70b37cec732f740 https://doi.org/10.1145/3531146.3533149

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Implication

Conceptual analysis reveals divergent individual predictions among equally accurate predictive models, highlighting opportunities for fairness alongside challenges to decision justifiability.

Model Multiplicity: Opportunities, Concerns, and Solutions

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Model Multiplicity: Opportunities, Concerns, and Solutions

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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