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September 21, 2017Nature CommunicationsOpen Access

A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

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Authors

MRMathew Koll RoxySGSubimal GhoshAPAmey Pathak

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Overview

Observational analysis reveals a threefold increase in widespread extreme rainfall across central India, highlighting potential meteorological predictability weeks in advance.

Key Points

  • To evaluate multi-decadal trends and atmospheric drivers of widespread extreme rainfall events over central India amidst a broader decline in monsoon precipitation.
  • Analyzed historical precipitation records and atmospheric moisture dynamics across central India from 1950 to 2015.
  • Assessed variability in low-level westerly winds over the Arabian Sea and examined connections between ocean temperatures and moisture transport surges.
  • Documented a threefold increase in widespread extreme rainfall events between 1950 and 2015, despite reductions in total monsoon rainfall and Bay of Bengal depressions.
  • Identified increased variability in low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea as the primary mechanism driving episodic surges of moisture inland.
  • Demonstrated that storm homogeneity and ocean temperature relationships provide an atmospheric basis for predicting extreme events two to three weeks in advance.

Cite This Study

Roxy et al. (2017) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d6ca48639f29d8dcab330bhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9
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