The role of spawning stock in formation of recruitment of northeast atlantic cod Gadus morhua

On the basis of statistical treatment of the data for 1946–2003 (correlation analysis and analysis of variance) on the biomass of the spawning stock (SSB) and of the resulting recruitment (R), expressed as abundance of three-year-old fish (N3), of the Northeast Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, the relationship SSB → N3 is revised and the extent of the influence of SSB on the formation of R is assessed. The relationship of SSB → N3 turned out to be significant only at SSB ≤ 250 000 t. The influence of SSB is only 4.3–14.7%, in comparison to the other background factors controlling R. This casts doubt on the adequacy of the so-called precautionary approach in fishery management, popular in international fishery organizations, which is based on efforts to support the spawning stock at a certain level (Bpa) taken as the optimum one.