What question did this study set out to answer?

To determine whether internal climate variability, specifically transitions within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, could account for the rapid 2023 global warming spike without external forcing.

October 10, 2024Atmospheric chemistry and physicsOpen Access

The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

SRShiv Priyam RaghuramanUniversity of Illinois Urbana-Champaign BSBrian J. SodenUniversity of Miami ACAmy ClementUniversity of Miami

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Climate model analysis reveals that transitions from prolonged La Niña to El Niño drive sharp warming spikes, indicating the 2023 temperature surge was driven by internal climate variability.

Key Points

To determine whether internal climate variability, specifically transitions within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, could account for the rapid 2023 global warming spike without external forcing.
Analyzed climate model simulations isolated to internal variability to calculate the baseline frequency of extreme interannual temperature jumps.
Evaluated the probability of global warming spikes (equivalent to the 0.29 ± 0.04 K rise observed between 2022 and 2023) following multi-year La Niña conditions transitioning into El Niño events.
Global warming spikes occurred with an overall probability of p = 1.6% ± 0.1% in model simulations governed solely by internal variability.
Spike likelihood increased to p = 10.3% ± 0.4% when a prolonged La Niña immediately preceded an El Niño, matching the sequence observed in 1976–1977 and 2022–2023.
Nearly all simulated spikes (p = 88.5% ± 0.3%) coincided with an active El Niño year, demonstrating that the 2023 warming surge does not require explanations based on changes in greenhouse gases or aerosols.

Cite This Study

Raghuraman et al. (2024) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d76155b4cef8fedc48fc08 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Implication

Climate model analysis reveals that transitions from prolonged La Niña to El Niño drive sharp warming spikes, indicating the 2023 temperature surge was driven by internal climate variability.

The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Also Consider

Also Consider