Verification of Eta–RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts

Motivated by the success of ensemble forecasting at the medium range, the performance of a prototype shortrange ensemble forecast system is examined. The ensemble dataset consists of 15 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. There are 15 members of the ensemble, 10 from an 80-km version of the eta model and five from the regional spectral model. Initial conditions include various in-house analyses available at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction as well as bred initial conditions interpolated from the mediumrange forecast ensemble. Forecasts from the 29-km mesoeta model were archived as well for comparison.