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April 10, 2026PLoS Medicine0 citationsOpen Access

Impact of abdominal obesity prevalence trends on dementia, cardiovascular disease, functional impairment, and mortality in older Chinese adults: A Markov scenario simulation, 2020–2050

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YZYujing ZhouMZMinrui ZengYCYuntao Chen

Key Points

  • The aim is to understand how trends in abdominal obesity affect dementia, cardiovascular disease, functional impairment, and mortality in older adults from 2020 to 2050.
  • Conducted a Markov scenario simulation from 2020 to 2050
  • Analyzed trends in abdominal obesity prevalence
  • Projected impacts on dementia, cardiovascular disease, and mortality rates
  • Control of abdominal obesity may reduce cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality
  • Increased longevity could lead to a higher burden of dementia and functional impairment
  • Highlights the need for integrated public health strategies.

Abstract

Abdominal obesity control may reduce CVD incidence and mortality, thereby shifting the disease burden toward dementia and FI due to increased longevity, highlighting the need for integrated, life-course public health strategies responsive to the patterns of dementia and its comorbidity in older people.

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Cite This Study

Zhou et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d8930e6c1944d70ce042behttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004970
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