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April 10, 2026Northeast Journal of Complex SystemsOpen Access

Regional Drought Modulation by ENSO and IOD as Indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index

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Authors

ATArpit TiwariPNPreethi NanjundanTSTanu Sharma

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Overview

Demonstrates the influence of ENSO and IOD on drought characteristics in India, indicating implications for drought prediction.

Key Points

  • The study aims to understand how ENSO and IOD affect drought patterns across India from 1950 to 2024.
  • Analyzed meteorological drought characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Index.
  • Quantified drought events in terms of frequency, duration, severity, and intensity.
  • Used composite, correlation, and mediation analyses to link drought to ENSO–IOD variability.
  • Conducted spatial correlations and wavelet coherence analyses.
  • El Niño events are associated with widespread and severe droughts in central and southern India.
  • Drought frequency during El Niño can exceed 30% with SPI values less than −1.5.
  • La Niña phases tend to enhance monsoon rainfall, reducing drought conditions.
  • ENSO has a stronger impact on rainfall and SPI compared to the IOD, but positive IOD phases can mitigate some El Niño effects.
  • Mediation analyses confirm ENSO’s dominant control at interannual timescales.

Cite This Study

Tiwari et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d894326c1944d70ce052efhttps://doi.org/10.63562/2577-8439.1140
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