The influencing factors and configuration pathways of coordinated management of "water resources, water environment and water ecology": Dynamic fsQCA causal analysis based on the TOSE theoretical framework

Water resources, water environment, and water ecology form an interconnected organic whole. Promoting the integrated governance of these three elements is the fundamental pathway to constructing beautiful rivers and lakes. Building upon an expanded TOE attribution model, a holistic TOSE theoretical framework was constructed to explain the influencing factors of integrated water governance. Using a coupling coordination degree model, the effectiveness of integrated water governance at the provincial level in China from 2012 to 2023 was measured, and dynamic fsQCA was employed to examine governance pathways. The results indicate that: (1) During the sample period, the coupling coordination degree of integrated water governance in 23 provincial-level regions achieved gradient leapfrogging, though overall it remains at a low level. Regional development gaps have gradually widened, with the Yangtze River Delta emerging as a "pioneering zone" for water ecological civilization construction. (2) The TOSE theoretical framework demonstrates applicability in explaining the driving factors of integrated water governance. Governance effectiveness relies on the synergistic optimization of four groups of factors: technological foundations, organizational management, social participation, and economic environment. (3) The driving pathways for integrated water governance include three types: policy-driven + social linkage, policy-driven + economic propulsion, and policy-driven + technology pull. Ineffective pathways consist of two types: imbalanced policy objectives and deficient policy implementation. (4) Substitutability exists among the conditional variables of driving pathways, but their effectiveness is premised on organizational management conditions. The operational modes of driving pathways exhibit phased characteristics: during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015), reliance was on policy drive; during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020), governance depended on positive interactions between policy guidance and societal response; and during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), technological foundations and social participation have become key factors. The research conclusions provide a theoretical framework and practical pathways for integrated water governance.