Estimation of left-turning vehicle maneuvers for the assessment of pedestrian safety at intersections

Improving pedestrian safety at intersections remains a critical issue. Although several types of safety countermeasures, such as reforming intersection layouts, have been implemented, methods have not yet been established to quantitatively evaluate the effects of these countermeasures before installation. One of the main issues in pedestrian safety is conflicts with turning vehicles. This study aims to develop an integrated model to represent the variations in the maneuvers of left-turners (left-hand traffic) at signalized intersections that dynamically considers the vehicle reaction to intersection geometry and crossing pedestrians. The proposed method consists of four empirically developed stochastic sub-models, including a path model, free-flow speed profile model, lag/gap acceptance model, and stopping/clearing speed profile model. Since safety assessment is the main objective driving the development of the proposed model, this study uses post-encroachment time (PET) and vehicle speed at the crosswalk as validation parameters. Preliminary validation results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation show that the proposed integrated model can realistically represent the variations in vehicle maneuvers as well as the distribution of PET and vehicle speeds at the crosswalk.