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Develop an objective classification of European atmospheric circulation patterns to streamline the post-processing and verification of ensemble weather forecasts.

April 15, 2016Meteorological ApplicationsOpen Access

A flexible approach to defining weather patterns and their application in weather forecasting over Europe

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Develop an objective classification of European atmospheric circulation patterns to streamline the post-processing and verification of ensemble weather forecasts.
Applied k-means clustering to daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) reanalysis data spanning 1850 to 2003 over the UK and Europe.
Derived sets of 30 patterns for medium-range forecasting and eight patterns for sub-seasonal to seasonal horizons.
Mapped European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members to the derived patterns to assess forecast bias and skill.
Annual forecast biases across the eight broad circulation regimes were generally small, but substantial seasonal variations emerged.
The westerly (positive North Atlantic Oscillation) regime was over-forecast during summer and under-forecast during winter.
Verification showed higher overall forecast skill during winter months compared to summer for most identified patterns.

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Implication

Model evaluation demonstrates seasonal biases in medium-range ensemble forecasts across Europe, suggesting improved probabilistic weather pattern post-processing.

Cite This Study

Neal et al. (2016) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d8e84f2c87b79b92d181c7 https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1563

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Implication

Model evaluation demonstrates seasonal biases in medium-range ensemble forecasts across Europe, suggesting improved probabilistic weather pattern post-processing.

A flexible approach to defining weather patterns and their application in weather forecasting over Europe

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Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

A flexible approach to defining weather patterns and their application in weather forecasting over Europe

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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