Unraveling the Burden of Pancreatic Cancer in the 21st Century: Trends in Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Key Contributing Factors

Background: PC has become a significant global health challenge, with incidence and mortality rates rising over the past three decades. While traditionally associated with aging, recent data indicate an increasing burden among younger populations. This study aims to analyze global trends in PC incidence and mortality and to identify key contributing factors, particularly modifiable risk factors such as obesity, diabetes, and smoking. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, population-based cancer registries globally and nationally, systematic reviews and analysis trends in PC incidence, mortality and survival were analyzed. To assess epidemiological shifts, we utilized previously published annual percentage change (AAPC) values stratified by region, age group, and sex, as reported in the cited literature. Additionally, the influence of modifiable risk factors was evaluated to determine their contribution to rising incidence rates. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the global incidence of PC increased by 8.9%, from 5.47 to 5.96 per 100,000, with the highest rates observed in high-Sociodemographic-Index (SDI) regions (10.00 per 100,000) and the lowest in low-SDI regions (1.59 per 100,000). Significant increases in incidence were noted in several countries, particularly among men in Iceland (AAPC 8.85) and women in Malta (AAPC 6.04). Early-onset PC is becoming more prevalent, especially among younger women. Modifiable risk factors, including obesity, diabetes, and smoking, play a critical role, with excess body weight contributing to 17.9% of PC cases and smoking to 13.9% in the United States (U.S.). Conclusions: The rising burden of PC, particularly among younger populations, highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies, early detection efforts, and further research into the underlying mechanisms driving these trends. Addressing modifiable risk factors could be key to mitigating the increasing incidence of this highly lethal cancer.