Epidemiological modeling study reveals sustained COVID-19 spread without intervention with a reproduction number of 2.03, highlighting the critical role of social distancing and quarantine.
We found an [Formula: see text] of 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population in the absence of strong control measures. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing and hygiene measures can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine of contacts and isolation of cases can help halt the spread on novel coronavirus.
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Mwalili et al. (2020) studied this question.
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