Evaluating adoption strategies for green innovations to decarbonize the United States pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption, underscoring the urgent need for effective decarbonization strategies. Here, we estimate the current lifecycle emissions intensity and energy cost of the United States industry at 3.12 short tons of equivalent carbon dioxide and 289.79 United States dollars per short ton of finished product, respectively. We provide projections through 2050 by combining lifecycle assessment, scenario-based modeling, and learning curve model. The analysis shows the importance of improving waste management, boosting recycling rates, and reducing purchased energy. Achieving net zero was demonstrated to be challenging, as the maximum achievable reduction in lifecycle emissions was only 15% across all simulated scenarios. Simulations reveal that a strategy centered on carbon capture, utilization, and storage offers long-term sustainability and superior resilience to systemic uncertainties compared to broad-spectrum aggressive adoption. These findings emphasize rapidly adopting green innovations. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage is the most robust long-term strategy in achieving net zero in the United States pulp and paper industry, despite challenges, according to lifecycle assessment, scenario modeling, and learning curves.