Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Alexandrium catenella in the Fjords of Aysén, Chile: A Foundational System Characterization Study

This study presents a 10-year spatiotemporal analysis of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) associated with Alexandrium catenella in the fjords of Aysén, Chile. The objective is to characterize the structural dynamics of the system prior to predictive modeling. Results reveal a complex system exhibiting non-linear behavior, strong spatial heterogeneity, temporal persistence, and episodic extreme toxicity events. Weak linear correlations between environmental variables and toxicity suggest that bloom dynamics are governed by multivariate interactions rather than direct relationships. The dataset is based on publicly available environmental monitoring data collected in situ, including biological and physical variables. Data preprocessing involved cleaning, filtering of inconsistent records, and imputation of missing values to ensure temporal continuity and analytical robustness. This work provides a foundational characterization of the system and establishes a basis for future machine learning-based predictive modeling of HAB events in complex coastal environments.