Spatial Correlation Network of Carbon Emissions in Belt and Road Countries: Social Network Analysis and TERGM (2011–2020)

The countries in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) significantly influence global carbon emissions, and the spatial correlation and driving mechanisms of their emissions are crucial for regional emission reduction and global climate governance. This study constructs a carbon emission spatial correlation network, where links represent pairwise spatial correlations derived from a modified gravity model, using data from 54 BRI countries (2011–2020). It applies social network analysis (SNA) to examine the network structure and uses the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM) to identify influencing factors. The main findings are as follows: (1) The BRI carbon emission network has become more interconnected and cohesive, with stronger regional connectivity and reduced inequality. (2) The network shows a core–periphery structure with notable spatial association patterns. Countries like Qatar, Israel, India, China, and the UAE have rapidly established carbon emission links, positioning them at the core due to their high connectivity and influence. (3) The network displays temporal dependence, with reciprocity associated with stronger mutual connections and transitivity associated with more cohesive network structures. Technological innovation and industrial structure optimization are positively associated with the formation of carbon emission connections, while energy structure and foreign investment are negatively associated with it. Economic development and technological innovation are associated with a country’s greater involvement in carbon emission connections, and countries with similar urbanization rates, energy, and industrial structures, but large economic disparities are more likely to form carbon emission associations, reflecting potential complementarities in the network structure.