Adoption Dynamics of Donkey-Drawn Cart Technology among Female Horticultural Traders in Eastern Ethiopia: A Bass Model Analysis (2021–2026)

{ "background": "In Eastern Ethiopia, female horticultural traders face significant transport challenges, limiting market access and income. The donkey-drawn cart (DDC) is a low-cost technology with potential to alleviate these constraints, yet its adoption dynamics are poorly understood.", "purpose and objectives": "This study analyses the diffusion process of DDC technology among female horticultural traders. It aims to forecast adoption rates and identify key parameters influencing the diffusion trajectory.", "methodology": "A longitudinal survey design was employed, collecting adoption data from a stratified sample of traders. The Bass diffusion model was applied, specified as n(t) = p[m - N(t)] + q(t)/m[m - N(t)], where p is the coefficient of innovation, q the coefficient of imitation, m the market potential, and $N(t)$ the cumulative adopters. Parameters were estimated via non-linear least squares, with robust standard errors computed.", "findings": "The model forecasts a peak adoption rate of 18% per annum approximately four years post-introduction, with a long-term market penetration of 62% (95% CI: 58, 67). The imitation coefficient ($q = 0.42$) substantially exceeded the innovation coefficient ($p = 0.03$), indicating social networks are the dominant driver of adoption.", "conclusion": "Diffusion of DDC technology is driven predominantly by social learning and word-of-mouth, rather than external influences. The Bass model provides a robust framework for forecasting and planning technology rollout in this context.", "recommendations": "Extension programmes should prioritise fostering peer-to-peer demonstrations and creating women-led user groups. Policymakers should integrate diffusion modelling into agricultural technology deployment strategies.", "key words": "technology adoption, diffusion model, animal traction, gender, smallholder trade, forecasting", "contribution statement": "This paper provides the first application of the Bass diffusion model to analyse the adoption of an intermediate transport technology in