Estimation of Primary Energy Consumption for a Panel of Five ASEAN Countries by Models Derived from Trend Analysis

This work employed trend analysis as a simple and practical modeling technique to derive estimating models for the primary energy consumption (PEC). A panel of five ASEAN countries, known as the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) were selected as the study's case. Various statistical indices were then employed to test the validity and robustness of the derived models. In addition, the PECs of the ASEAN-5 countries were estimated by the derived models from 2025 to 2035. The results showed that all of the derived models could achieve up to 97% accuracy in their estimations. Additionally, the projected results revealed that the ASEAN-5 countries' total PEC would increase at a rate of 1.82% annually and 20.33% overall by 2035, when compared to the data in 2023. In summary, this paper concludes that models for estimating the PEC may be derived efficiently using the trend analysis.