Good’s theorem is the apparent platitude that it is always rational to ‘look before you leap’: to gather (reliable) information before making a decision when doing so is free. We argue that Good’s theorem is not platitudinous and may be false. And we argue that the correct advice is rather to ‘make your act depend on the answer to a question’. Looking before you leap is rational when, but only when, it is a way to do this. 1. Introduction2. Good’s Theorem3. Inexact Observation4. Independence5. Conditionality 5.1. The principle5.2. Revisiting the counterexamples6. Conclusion
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Ahmed et al. (2017) studied this question.
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