What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine how the perceived origin of advice—human expert versus statistical method—affects the weight given to it when adjusting stock price forecasts.

February 9, 2009Journal of Behavioral Decision MakingOpen Access

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

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Authors

DÖDilek ÖnkalNorthumbria University PGPaul GoodwinUniversity of Bath MTMary E. ThomsonDepartment of Education and Training

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Implication

Experimental study demonstrates greater discounting of statistical advice compared to human experts in stock price forecasters, highlighting algorithm aversion during decision-making.

Key Points

To examine how the perceived origin of advice—human expert versus statistical method—affects the weight given to it when adjusting stock price forecasts.
Study 1 assigned participants to receive identical point and prediction interval forecasts attributed to either a human expert or a statistical method to adjust initial stock predictions.
Study 2 exposed participants to dual advice sources, presenting them as either homogeneous (both human or both statistical) or competing (one human expert and one statistical method).
In Study 1, while both advice sources improved point forecast accuracy and prediction interval calibration, advice labeled as statistical was discounted significantly more than human advice.
In Study 2, statistical advice held equal influence when paired against another statistical source, but was markedly subordinated when directly paired against advice attributed to a human expert.

Cite This Study

Önkal et al. (2009) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69da2437b48bb130d46843d8 https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.637

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Implication

Experimental study demonstrates greater discounting of statistical advice compared to human experts in stock price forecasters, highlighting algorithm aversion during decision-making.

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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