What question did this study set out to answer?

To quantify the historical growth rate of science since the mid-1600s across disciplines using long-term publication and cited reference data.

April 29, 2015Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology

Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references

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To quantify the historical growth rate of science since the mid-1600s across disciplines using long-term publication and cited reference data.
Analyzed Web of Science bibliometric records through publication year 2012, assessing total publication counts and cited references per cited reference year.
Evaluated historical trends across all disciplines combined and separately for natural sciences and medical/health sciences.
Applied segmented regression analysis to identify distinct historical segments with consistent growth rates.
Identified three primary historical growth phases in cited references, with the expansion rate approximately tripling in each consecutive era.
Growth rates increased from less than 1% annually up to the mid-18th century, to 2% to 3% between the world wars, and reached 8% to 9% annually up to 2010.

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Implication

Bibliometric analysis reveals three distinct acceleration phases in global scientific output since the mid-1600s, indicating exponential growth tripling across historical epochs.

Cite This Study

Bornmann et al. (2015) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69da7cd4ae64bec32b835f5f https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.23329

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Implication

Bibliometric analysis reveals three distinct acceleration phases in global scientific output since the mid-1600s, indicating exponential growth tripling across historical epochs.

Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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