Heathlands confronting global change: drivers of biodiversity loss from past to future scenarios

Habitat loss and fragmentation affect sensitive species and ecosystem functions. The nature of the surrounding area will condition the quality of the heathland remnants by, for example, propagule pressure from invasive species. The dominant ericoid shrubs can be out-competed by vigorous perennial grasses with increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition, although interactions with climate and management practices may either counteract or enhance this process. Grazing or periodic burning promotes heath loss but site-specific combined treatments maintain species diversity and community structure. Climate change alone moderately affects plant diversity, community structure and ecosystem functions. Combined with other factors, climatic changes will condition heath development, mainly with regard to key aspects such as seed set and seedling establishment, rare species occurrence and nutrient cycling in the soil. It is essential to address the effects of not only individual factors, but their interactions, together with land-use history, on heathland development and conservation in order to predict habitat response to future scenarios.