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Review statistical methods for quantifying warming trends, identifying change points, and estimating uncertainties in climate time series while accounting for autocorrelation and non-Gaussian data.

December 11, 2018Earth-Science ReviewsOpen Access

Trend analysis of climate time series: A review of methods

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Review statistical methods for quantifying warming trends, identifying change points, and estimating uncertainties in climate time series while accounting for autocorrelation and non-Gaussian data.
Evaluated linear, nonlinear, change-point, and nonparametric trend estimation techniques calibrated for climate-specific autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributions.
Validated statistical reliability using computing-intensive Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic datasets.
Applied state-of-the-art trend estimation methods to the NASA GISTEMP global surface temperature time series.
Identified statistically significant accelerated global surface warming beginning in the year 1974.
Demonstrated that a mid-20th-century temperature peak around World War II is attributable to inferior historical data quality rather than a true climate signal.
Found no statistical basis for a global warming hiatus after 1998 when extending the analytical fit interval to 2017, with earlier apparent pauses falling within uncertainty bounds.

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Implication

Methodological review reveals accelerated post-1974 warming and refutes a post-1998 hiatus in global temperature records, highlighting the need for objective statistical interval selection.

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Manfred Mudelsee (2018) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69daa2623bc1ef72256843fc https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.12.005

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Implication

Methodological review reveals accelerated post-1974 warming and refutes a post-1998 hiatus in global temperature records, highlighting the need for objective statistical interval selection.

Trend analysis of climate time series: A review of methods

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Discussion

Implication

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Trend analysis of climate time series: A review of methods

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study