The hedonic expectancy gap: a framework for understanding intention failure in precontemplation

This paper proposes the Hedonic Expectancy Gap, the signed discrepancy between anticipated and experienced pleasantness during behavior initiation (𝝙 = Reality - Forecast), as a proximal mechanism linking desire for change to intention formation. The purpose is to formalize a persistent ambiguity in the Transtheoretical Model: precontemplation is defined by absent intention, yet “unready” individuals are often treated in practice and in systems as lacking desire. This paper first summarizes how this practitioner- and systems-level inference has become dominant. It then synthesizes convergent evidence that many precontemplators desire change but expect initiation to feel worse than it typically does, consistent with affective-forecasting findings that forecasts are systematically inaccurate and behaviorally decisive. Finally, the paper specifies the Hedonic Expectancy Gap as a testable variable, and outlines a minimal cycle consisting of a time-locked forecast, bounded micro-test, immediate post-experience rating, 𝝙 computation, and neutral practitioner elicitation, designed to quantify hedonic prediction error and support recalibration. The Hedonic Expectancy Gap could provide a practical measurement-and-intervention scaffold for integrative health coaching and digital-health design by distinguishing expectancy-blocked non-initiation from genuine disinterest, and clarifying how affective expectation can suppress intention even when outcome value and capability are otherwise favorable.