Analyzes historical civilization collapses to predict future outcomes based on resource dynamics, suggesting the future is shaped by choice.
Every civilization in history has eventually collapsed or transformed. This paper proposes that all theories of civilizational collapse — resource depletion, political corruption, military overextension, climate change — describe the same underlying phenomenon: D (friction) growth exceeding N (productive output) growth, driving V (value) toward zero. Using the formula V=N/D, this paper examines three historical collapses (Rome, Ming Dynasty, Soviet Union), diagnoses contemporary civilization as currently in a D-acceleration phase, and identifies a bifurcation between two mathematically possible futures: a D collapse scenario and a D=0 phase transition scenario. The paper argues that the difference between these futures is not destiny but design — a choice being made in this decade.
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Yoshihikaru Katayama (2026) studied this question.
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