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January 1, 2025Epidemiology and InfectionOpen Access

Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections

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Authors

SFSyeda Hira FatimaFlinders University FZFarrah ZaidiThe University of Agriculture, Peshawar JRJaveria RafiqThe University of Agriculture, Peshawar

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Implication

Time-series study demonstrates that temperatures above 22.4°C increase malaria incidence in vulnerable districts, indicating an urgent need for climate-adaptive healthcare measures.

Key Points

To evaluate the empirical relationship between ambient temperature and malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan and project future heat-related transmission risks under climate change.
Analyzed monthly malaria surveillance data from 2014 to 2022 from the Integrated Vector Control/Malaria Control Program in Bannu and Lakki Marwat districts alongside Copernicus ERA5-Land gridded meteorological data.
Applied time-series analysis utilizing distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) with quasi-Poisson regression to model delayed temperature effects and projected case numbers through the 2060s under high-emission scenarios.
Malaria transmission increased by 9% to 10% for every 1°C increase when temperatures exceeded a threshold of 22.4°C in both districts.
Heat-attributable fractions accounted for 39.8% of reported malaria cases in Bannu and 54.1% in Lakki Marwat.
Under high-emission climate scenarios, heat-related malaria incidence is projected to rise by 0.8% to 3.5% by the 2060s.

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Fatima et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69dd4804fb7610310c10180c https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268825000111

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Implication

Time-series study demonstrates that temperatures above 22.4°C increase malaria incidence in vulnerable districts, indicating an urgent need for climate-adaptive healthcare measures.

Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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