What question did this study set out to answer?

To model long-duration periods of high time-integrated 2-MeV electron flux in the outer radiation belt and evaluate long-term hazard return levels using historical geomagnetic and solar activity.

August 1, 2022Journal of Geophysical Research Space PhysicsOpen Access

A Climatology of Long‐Duration High 2‐MeV Electron Flux Periods in the Outer Radiation Belt

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Authors

DMD. MourenasCommissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives OAO. V. AgapitovBerkeley College AAAnton ArtemyevPlanetary Science Institute

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Implication

Statistical modeling demonstrates long-duration relativistic electron flux dynamics in Earth's outer radiation belt, indicating potential for cycle-scale space weather forecasts.

Key Points

To model long-duration periods of high time-integrated 2-MeV electron flux in the outer radiation belt and evaluate long-term hazard return levels using historical geomagnetic and solar activity.
Analyzed satellite measurements of time-integrated 2-MeV electron flux deep inside the outer radiation belt collected between 2001 and 2017.
Correlated observed flux with preceding time-integrated homogenized geomagnetic index (aa_H) and evaluated physical mechanisms involving chorus wave acceleration and radial diffusion.
Performed Extreme Value analysis on time-integrated geomagnetic activity records spanning 1868–2017 and compared cycle-averaged geomagnetic metrics to mean sunspot numbers.
Identified a significant correlation between satellite-observed 2-MeV electron flux and preceding time-integrated geomagnetic activity, driven by cumulative wave acceleration and inward radial diffusion.
Estimated long-term electron flux return levels over 1868–2017 that showed rough agreement with empirical baselines calculated from 20-year satellite datasets.
Established a high correlation between solar-cycle-averaged geomagnetic activity and average sunspot numbers, supporting future solar-cycle forecasting of relativistic electron events.

Cite This Study

Mourenas et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69dd6efe629747396240cfd4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ja030661

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Implication

Statistical modeling demonstrates long-duration relativistic electron flux dynamics in Earth's outer radiation belt, indicating potential for cycle-scale space weather forecasts.

A Climatology of Long‐Duration High 2‐MeV Electron Flux Periods in the Outer Radiation Belt

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Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

A Climatology of Long‐Duration High 2‐MeV Electron Flux Periods in the Outer Radiation Belt

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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