Generational Replacement and the Future of Post-Materialist Values

This note utilizes cohort analysis together with census projections to estimate the probable distribution of Materialist/Post-Materialist values among the West European public to the year 2000. Analyses of 126 national surveys carried out in West Germany, Great Britain, The Netherlands, France, Belgium, and Italy demonstrate that the priorities of the West European public shifted substantially from materialist toward post-materialist goals during the period between 1970-71 and 1985, and that this shift resulted from intergenerational population replacement. Building upon these results, we use census projections of the future age distribution of these societies in 1990, 1995 and 2000 to project future levels of post-materialism. We conclude that: (a) the rate of value change is likely to be slower during the remainder of the century than it was during the past 15 years, but (b) the population replacement process is likely to continue to exert a pressure increasing the level of post-materialism during the remainder of the century.