Among patients who undergo gastroscopy with biopsy for clinical indications, approximately 1 in 256 with normal mucosa, 1 in 85 with gastritis, 1 in 50 with atrophic gastritis, 1 in 39 with intestinal metaplasia, and 1 in 19 with dysplasia will develop gastric cancer within 20 years. These numbers, along with cost-benefit analyses, should guide future surveillance policies for these particular patient groups.
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Song et al. (2015) studied this question.
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