What question did this study set out to answer?

To update transmission risk estimates for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), evaluate when the effective daily reproduction ratio falls below 1, and project peak timing under changing interventions.

January 1, 2020Infectious Disease ModellingOpen Access

An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

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Authors

BTBiao TangXi'an Jiaotong University NBNicola Luigi BragazziUniversité Claude Bernard Lyon 1 QLQian LiKunming University of Science and Technology

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Implication

Mathematical modeling study reveals evolving transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus, indicating that strict self-isolation accelerates the epidemic peak.

Key Points

To update transmission risk estimates for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), evaluate when the effective daily reproduction ratio falls below 1, and project peak timing under changing interventions.
Refit an existing dynamic transmission model using case reporting data available up to January 29, 2020.
Incorporated time-dependent contact rates and diagnosis rates to capture improved diagnostic turnaround and evolving public health control strategies.
Re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio over time to track the impact of containment measures and determine when transmission drops below replacement level.
Identified persistent and strict self-isolation as the most effective intervention, with epidemic growth and peak timing depending heavily on the implementation of control measures.

Cite This Study

Tang et al. (2020) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69deab51499d77a496b0c510 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.001

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Implication

Mathematical modeling study reveals evolving transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus, indicating that strict self-isolation accelerates the epidemic peak.

An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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