Understanding visitor–resident relations in overtourism: developing resilience for sustainable tourism

While almost all travel destinations seek to increase tourists, less attention is paid to balancing the growth in tourists against consequent visitor–resident irritants, which is essential if the objective is to make tourism more sustainable. Overlooking the carrying capacity of a destination is a common mistake committed when formulating travel visa policies. Overtourism is a term recently used to contextualize this potential hazard to many popular tourist destinations worldwide. One notable case in point is the “multiple-entry permit” policy implemented in Hong Kong which is causing conflicts between mainland Chinese visitors and Hong Kong residents. To investigate the overtourism phenomenon in Hong Kong we develop a hysteresis model. We hypothesized that ceteris paribus, the implementation of a “multiple-entry permit” policy would lead to an overwhelming growth in day-trippers and cause a permanently negative cointegrating relationship with residents’ sentiment. We confirmed our hypothesis by using the bound tests of Autoregressive-Distributed Lag models. Our findings suggest that policymakers should note that the deterioration in visitor–resident relations from overtourism may exhibit a significant hysteresis effect that will persist far beyond the original stimulus. “Developing resilience in tourism” and “exploring sustainable degrowth” are discussed as potential strategies for long-term tourism growth.