ABSTRACT Water remains the most critical limiting resource for the arid and semi‐arid China's Loess Plateau (CLP). Over the past three decades, large‐scale ecological restoration (ER) has significantly increased vegetation coverage but also altered the regional hydrological cycle. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of water resource conflicts (WRC) by integrating multisource remote sensing data and the water balance equation, and predicts future trends (2021–2100) under CMIP6 climate scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) While vegetation greening has enhanced ecosystem services, it has intensified the trade‐off between ecosystem water use and human demand, contributing to a 30% reduction in average annual runoff from 2000 to 2020. (2) WRC has become prominent, with available water resources approaching sustainable limits in 2020, particularly in Central and Northern Shanxi and Northern Shaanxi provinces. (3) However, future projections under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios suggest a turning point: benefiting from a predicted warmer and wetter climate, the intense WRC is projected to be alleviated by 2100. These findings reveal the nonlinear evolution of water scarcity and provide critical insights for adaptive water management in dryland restoration.
Zhu et al. (2026) studied this question.