Linking Compound Dry–Hot Extremes to Vegetation Decline in Central India

Compound dry and hot extremes (CDHEs) pose serious threats to rainfed agriculture, vegetation productivity and livelihoods in semi‐arid to humid central Indian regions, yet their spatial extent and ecological impacts remain insufficiently quantified. This study analyzes CDHE occurrence and vegetation response across districts of Madhya Pradesh using precipitation, temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) records from 2000 to 2024. Standardized precipitation (SPI), temperature (STI) and vegetation (SNDVI) indices were derived from ERA5, TerraClimate and MODIS datasets, and CDHEs were identified using three percentile thresholds (P30 & T70, P20 & T80 and P10 & T90). Strong coherence between ERA5 and TerraClimate ( R 2 > 0.80 for precipitation and > 0.90 for temperature) confirms the robustness of CDHE detection across data sources. Persistent CDHE hotspots emerge across the Gird region, Bundelkhand uplands, northern Narmada basin and eastern plateau districts. Under moderate thresholds (P30 & T70), districts experience 40–60 CDHE events, declining to 7–16 events under the most extreme conditions (P10 & T90). Vegetation response shows marked sensitivity to compound stress, with P (SNDVI low |SPI low) increasing from ~0.50 to > 0.55 as drought intensifies, while P (SNDVI low|CDHE) exceeds 0.85–0.90 in many districts. Amplification metrics indicate 20%–50% greater vegetation stress relative to dryness alone, rising to nearly 80% under intensified extremes. These results identify CDHEs as a dominant climate stressor shaping vegetation resilience in Madhya Pradesh and provide a scalable framework for ecosystem monitoring and climate‐adaptive agricultural planning under future warming.