Harnessing Technology to Enhance Agricultural System Stability: Unveiling the Role of Rural E‐Commerce in Agricultural Resilience

Agriculture has inherently fragile characteristics. Mitigating the vulnerability of agricultural systems and enhancing agricultural resilience are crucial tasks for ensuring food security and social stability. Digital technologies (such as e‐commerce) that integrate both transactional and informational functions can effectively alleviate uncertainties in agricultural production and thereby offer potential avenues for improving agricultural resilience. This study employs a counterfactual framework and utilizes complex spatial econometric models to quantify agricultural resilience. Using the National Rural E‐commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project (NRECDP) as a quasi‐natural experiment, data from 1631 counties in China, from 2010 to 2022, are analyzed via a multi‐period double difference approach. The findings indicate that the NRECDP primarily enhances agricultural resilience by expanding both traditional and online markets, and while government support for agriculture and the level of governmental attentiveness to e‐commerce can amplify policy effectiveness. Furthermore, the NRECDP's impact on agricultural resilience exhibits regional variations. Specifically, the policy's effects are more pronounced in central regions, areas distant from central cities, areas with flat terrain, and regions with balanced production and consumption. These findings underscore the role of policy implementation in stabilizing agricultural systems; this study also provides actionable policy insights for enhancing agricultural resilience.