Northern Xinjiang, an arid inland area in Northwest China, is highly vulnerable to air pollution under intensifying climate extremes, yet the relative roles of temperature and precipitation extremes remain insufficiently understood. Using multi-source datasets for 2000–2023, including China High Air Pollutants (CHAP) particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5 ), particulate matter 10 (PM 10 ), and ozone (O 3 ) products and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) extreme climate indices derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5)-Land, together with trend detection, change-point analysis, pixel-wise Pearson correlation, and random forest (RF) modeling, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of major air pollutants and their responses to meteorological extremes in northern Xinjiang. PM 2.5 and PM 10 generally declined from 2000 to 2023, whereas O 3 increased, indicating a shift from particulate-dominated pollution toward stronger photochemical pollution. Interannually, PM 2.5 showed a rise–decline pattern, PM 10 exhibited a rise–decline–rebound pattern, and O 3 increased markedly after 2015. Clear seasonal contrasts were observed, with PM 2.5 peaking in winter, PM 10 in spring, and O 3 in summer. During the same period, northern Xinjiang exhibited a pronounced warming–drying tendency, characterized by increasing heat-related indices, decreasing cold-related indices, reduced precipitation totals and heavy-rainfall frequency, and increasing consecutive dry days. Pollutant–climate relationships showed strong spatial heterogeneity and pollutant-specific contrasts across the Urumqi–Changji–Shihezi corridor, the Ili River Valley, and the Junggar Basin. PM 2.5 responses to precipitation shifted from predominantly positive to negative, PM 10 showed mainly negative associations with precipitation extremes, and O 3 responses varied by subregion. Temperature-related extremes generally explained more pollutant variability than precipitation-related extremes, with PM 2.5 showing the highest sensitivity. These findings highlight the coupled influences of warming, drying, emissions, and terrain-controlled transport on air quality and support region-specific, multi-pollutant strategies for coordinated climate adaptation and air pollution control in northern Xinjiang.
Yalong et al. (Wed,) studied this question.