M-Probability: a modified probability approach for multi-criteria decision making

One of the prominent multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques utilised for ranking alternatives is the probability method. However, the probability method has limitations: it cannot be applied when the decision matrix includes a profit criterion with negative values for certain alternatives, or when the sum of this criterion's values across all alternatives is zero. To address these limitations, this study introduces a modified version of the Probability method, called M-Probability. By altering certain formulas, M-probability overcomes the restrictions inherent in the original approach. The efficacy of M-Probability has been rigorously tested through comparisons with other MCDM methods across five case studies, analysing over 250 output scenarios through comparative and sensitivity analyses. The results consistently demonstrated that M-Probability achieves a high level of accuracy. M-Probability method represents a significant advancement, providing a more robust and accurate decision-making tool that effectively circumvents the shortcomings of the original method.