This analysis uncovers factors mitigating stock price penalties for missing analyst forecasts, indicating varying market reactions.
Prior research consistently finds a negative stock price reaction to missing analyst forecasts that is separate from the magnitude of the earnings surprise. We examine firm and economy-wide characteristics that we predict will attenuate this stock price response. We find that the penalty to missing analyst forecasts is lower for firms reporting a loss, larger firms, and firms that have more noise in their earnings expectations. In contrast, the penalty is more severe for firms with high intangible intensity and that experience a stock price run-up prior to the earnings announcement. We also find mixed results suggesting that the stock price penalty to missing forecasts is less severe during periods of high macroeconomic growth. A Time of Forgiveness: Factors that Attenuate the Negative Stock Price Response to Missing Analyst Forecasts.
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Bischoff et al. (2026) studied this question.
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