Twenty-Four Years of Land Cover Land Use Change in Gasabo, Rwanda, and Projection for 2032

Urbanisation reshapes Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) by driving deforestation, wetland loss, and the conversion of natural and agricultural areas into built environments. However, integrated analyses of LCLU change in response to climate variability in topographically complex, rapidly urbanising African cities remain limited. Therefore, this study examined 2000–2024 LCLU changes in hilly Gasabo District (Kigali, Rwanda) using 30 m Landsat imagery and a Random Trees classifier (92.7% accuracy, 70/30 train-test split), with 2032 projections via a population-driven hybrid trend model. Population estimates/projections 320,516 in 2002 to 967,512 in 2024, 1.41 million by 2032, were derived from Rwanda’s census data and exponential growth modelling (calibrated to 5.05% annual growth). Rapid population growth has driven a 539% expansion of Built-up Areas, accompanied by notable declines in cropland and Forest. Local climate trends (Meteo Rwanda stations) aligned with global datasets (ERA5-Land and CHIRPS): rainfall fluctuation and temperature rose, with strong correlations between population-driven Built-up Areas expansion. From 2024 to 2032, LCLU projections indicate that Built-up Areas will continue to expand by 29.5%. Cropland was forecast to decline to 15.9%, while Forest loss slowed to 5.7%. MLR analysis revealed strong correlations between population-driven expansion of Built-up Areas, cropland/forest loss, warming, and rainfall fluctuations in Gasabo. An ARDL model was applied to address multicollinearity among LCLU predictors, which limited the interpretation of individual coefficients, and confirmed the core MLR correlation trends, with statistically significant (p < 0.05) coefficients. The results highlight the need for data-driven spatial planning in Gasabo (stricter zoning, high-rise buildings, targeted reforestation, climate-resilient green infrastructure) to mitigate population and urbanisation-driven environmental degradation.