Determinants of entering the teaching profession: a longitudinal study

Teacher shortages and declining enrollment in teacher preparation programs have intensified interest in understanding who enters the teaching profession. This large-scale, descriptive, longitudinal analysis draws on administrative data from Kazakhstan's National Education Database to examine the demographic, academic, and institutional characteristics associated with becoming a teacher. The analytical sample comprises 67,901 school graduates who enrolled in a Kazakhstani university in 2020, enabling comparisons between students in education majors and those in other fields. Logistic regression models, reported as marginal effects and clustered by school, indicate that graduates from rural and small-scale secondary schools are more likely to enter teaching. Academic indicators, such as earning a diploma with honours and higher math and reading scores, are also positively associated with entry. University characteristics play a distinctive role: attending a pedagogical university increases the probability of becoming a teacher, while studying at universities located in major cities and paying tuition are associated with lower entry rates. By incorporating students both within and outside traditional teacher-education pathways, this study responds to calls for broader sampling in research on career choice and provides new evidence on teacher supply.