大型水库调度中洪水风险评估模型构建及应用研究（Construction and Application Research of Flood Risk Assessment Models in Large Reservoir Operation ）

Abstract ： As a critical engineering measure for regulating watershed water resources and preventing flood disasters, the scientific and safe operation of large reservoirs is directly related to the stability of people's lives, property, and socioeconomic development in downstream areas. This study aims to explore the risk sources throughout the reservoir operation process and proposes a comprehensive risk assessment model framework that integrates uncertain hydrological forecasting, reservoir flood routing calculations, 1D and 2D coupled hydrodynamic simulations, and multi-dimensional risk indicator quantification. The research findings can provide strong technical support for enhancing the risk prediction capabilities and scientific decision-making level of large reservoir operations, promoting the transition of reservoir flood management from traditional "deterministic" models to modern "probabilistic" and "risk-based" models.