Research on Early-Age Shrinkage and Prediction Model of Ultra-High-Performance Concrete Based on the BO-XGBoost Algorithm

Early-age shrinkage is a critical factor governing the dimensional stability and cracking susceptibility of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC). However, accurate prediction of UHPC shrinkage remains challenging due to the strong nonlinear interactions among mixture parameters, curing conditions, and hydration-induced internal moisture evolution, particularly when only limited experimental data are available. In this study, a systematic experimental program was conducted to investigate the influence of the binder-to-sand ratio, water-to-binder ratio, polypropylene fiber dosage, and curing environment on both early drying shrinkage and autogenous shrinkage of UHPC. Based on the experimental results, a structured dataset covering all shrinkage test data was constructed to support data-driven modeling. To improve prediction reliability under small-sample conditions, a Bayesian-optimized Extreme Gradient Boosting (BO-XGBoost) framework was developed and benchmarked against several conventional machine learning models, including Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Shrinkage test data from other literature validated the prediction accuracy of this model, demonstrating its rationality and practicality. In addition, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method was employed to quantitatively interpret the contribution and interaction mechanisms of key variables affecting shrinkage behavior. The results show that the BO-XGBoost model achieves the highest prediction accuracy and stability among the evaluated algorithms. SHAP analysis further reveals that curing age and curing environment dominate drying shrinkage, whereas autogenous shrinkage is primarily governed by the curing age and water-to-binder ratio. The interaction analysis also identifies the coupled effects between low water-to-binder ratio and extended curing age. The proposed framework not only improves prediction robustness for UHPC shrinkage under limited data conditions but also provides interpretable insights into the mechanisms governing early-age deformation. These findings offer a data-driven basis for optimizing UHPC mixture design and mitigating early-age cracking risks in engineering applications.