Risk assessment of large hailstones and strong winds on photovoltaic installations in China

Catastrophic weather events can have a devastating impact on photovoltaic (PV) facilities, potentially leading to instability of the power system and great economic losses. However, the risks of such events to China's PV system have not yet been evaluated, leaving a gap in climate adaptation planning and energy security management. On the basis of meteorological observation records and the latest PV installation capacity (from 2024), we found that the current PV installations are mostly located in areas where hail and strong winds are prevalent. The eastern region of China (Hebei, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces) faces the most serious threats, with more than half of the counties in these regions at high-risk of large hailstones and compound disasters involving hail and strong winds. A high-risk of strong winds is mainly observed in northwestern China and typhoon landing areas in southeastern China. The potential maximum economic losses for PV systems in extremely high-risk areas could reach tens of millions of CNY, with reductions in annual power generation reaching approximately 200 TW h. By 2060, the high-risk areas could potentially expand to central China, and the adverse impacts of meteorological disasters on PV may undermine the efforts dedicated to achieving carbon-neutrality. This study proposes strategies for optimizing PV installation in China, and emphasizes the need to consider catastrophic weather events in PV layout in future.