High-impact weather effects on wind and solar power systems under future climate scenarios in China

High-impact weather events (HIWs) threaten power system reliability by inducing prolonged, concurrent deficits in wind and solar generation. Here, we present an integrated assessment of China’s future renewable-dominated power system under climate change, leveraging 5-kilometer resolution spatial and hourly temporal meteorological data, spatially explicit electricity demand projections, and a climate-informed coordinated optimization of renewable generation and cross-regional transmission. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2040, we find that HIWs can trigger generation deficits persisting up to 24 days annually, reducing wind and solar output by as much as 41.2% in inland provinces and 22.7% across northern-central grids, respectively. Inner Mongolia and the Northwest China Grid emerge as key export hubs, with a combined cross-regional transmission potential of 605 gigawatts to alleviate regional imbalances. These results underscore the amplifying role of HIWs in disrupting renewable supply chains and highlight the necessity of spatially coordinated, climate-resilient infrastructure planning to secure a low-carbon energy future. Using a climate-informed hourly model of generation, demand and transmission, the study shows that high-impact weather can drive wind and solar shortfalls across China, underscoring the need for coordinated, climate-resilient grid planning.