Asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of climate variables on livestock production in Ethiopia

Climate change poses significant challenges to livestock production and food security in Ethiopia. This study investigates the asymmetric effects of climate change on livestock production using annual data from 1993 to 2023. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed to capture potential asymmetries in both the long and short run. The empirical results reveal that strong asymmetric effects of climate variables in both long run and short run. In the long run, a 1% positive temperature shock significantly reduces livestock production by 11.8%, whereas a 1% negative shock increases by 15.6%. Rainfall also exhibits asymmetric effects a 1% increase in rainfall increases livestock production by 2.0%, while a 1% decrease reduces by 3.4%. In the long run, CO₂ emissions shown strong asymmetric effects on livestock production a 1% positive shock reduces livestock output by 1.6%, whereas a 1% negative shock increases livestock production by 5.02%. Among control variables, cereal output and exchange rate exert negative effects on livestock production, whereas population growth has a positive impact. Short-run effects of these climate variables follow the same asymmetric patterns, highlighting the immediate as well as long-term sensitivity of livestock production. The findings emphasize the vulnerability of Ethiopia’s livestock sector to climate variability and underline the importance of adopting integrated strategies. Policy implications point to the need for climate-smart livestock management, promotion of mixed farming systems, investment in resilience-building measures, and the adoption of a climate-resilient green economy approach. Implementing these strategies can enhance livestock productivity, sustainability, and the sector’s capacity to cope with ongoing and future climate risks.