Rethinking Spatial Potential Analysis with New Data: Integrating Supply, Demand, and Implementation Criteria in Municipal Heat Planning

The ongoing energy transition is reconfiguring socio-technical structures and places particular pressure on the heat sector, where decentralized, building-integrated systems and district heating networks must increasingly replace fossil-based infrastructures. Municipal Heat Planning has therefore emerged as a central, though nonbinding, planning instrument for translating national climate targets and legal frameworks into spatially explicit strategies at the local level, yet current practice still relies predominantly on generic, model- based potential estimations that offer limited decision support for feasibility-oriented implementation. Existing potential analyses often emphasize theoretical and technical potentials, lack a clear distinction between source and demand, and insufficiently integrate spatial feasibility criteria such as distances, environmental constraints, land availability, and property rights, which contributes to a persistent gap between potential studies and subsequent feasibility analyses. This study examines how potential-based approaches in Municipal Heat Planning can be conceptually and methodologically refined to more accurately reflect real-world implementation conditions. It combines a systematic literature review with a document analysis of existing municipal heat plans. Furthermore, semi-structured expert interviews are conducted to deepen the understanding of data-related challenges, potential analyses, and barriers in heat planning. Building on these insights, the study develops a two-stage, potential analysis framework in which a generic, preselection using open geodata provides a transparent spatial screening of heat sources, while a second, municipality-oriented stage systematically integrates local data, ownership structures, obstacles, and project synergies to prepare feasibility studies. By structuring the potential taxonomy, screening spatial criteria, and embedding them in a reproducible geoprocessing workflow, the framework shifts Municipal Heat Planning from generic potential estimation toward a feasibility-oriented, data-driven, and context-sensitive methodology that strengthens the methodological foundations of municipal heat planning, supports evidence- based prioritization of interventions, and improves transparency and comparability across municipalities.