Climate change poses an escalating threat to food security in the Near East, a region characterized by water scarcity, rapid population growth, and heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture. Despite extensive research on climate change impacts on crop yields, the effects on rainfed crop suitability—the fundamental capacity of a region’s climate to support crop growth—remain insufficiently explored, particularly across transboundary river basins. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the suitability of seven rainfed crops in the Near East, specifically the Nile, Levant, and Tigris-Euphrates River basins. Using the EcoCrop model and climate projections for 2041–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we analyzed changes in crop suitability relative to a 1970–2000 baseline. Results project significant temperature increases (2.1–3.8 °C) and precipitation reductions (8–20%) in the Levant by mid-century, leading to alarming declines in crop suitability. While the Nile Basin is projected to gain substantial rainfall (+214 billion m3 under RCP 8.5 by 2050), the Fertile Crescent faces a significant rainfall decrease (−24 billion m3 under RCP 8.5 by 2050). Contrary to the negative impacts predicted for the Levant and parts of the Fertile Crescent, the Tigris-Euphrates basin shows potential suitability gains for maize and olives (up to +30% under RCP 4.5 for maize), with olives also showing increased suitability in other basins. However, the suitability of the remaining five rainfed crops is projected to decline across all basins under both emission scenarios. These findings highlight the complex and regionally diverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in the Near East and provide critical information for cross-border food and water security policies.
Abdallah et al. (Sat,) studied this question.