Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan have ruled their respective countries since before the Soviet Union dissolved, dominating their political systems and centring power around themselves and their families. However, both are in their 70s and questions of who will succeed them and whether their departure will result in political instability have become increasingly pressing in both societies. Rooted in the literature on authoritarian leadership succession, as well as reviewing the cases of leadership changes in the former Soviet Union to date, this article examines the conditions within these countries which would make smooth transition more or less likely. This has implications for authoritarian leadership succession elsewhere in the region and more broadly.
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Thomas Ambrosio (2014) studied this question.